Baton Rouge’s job market will grow in 2010 and 2011, but that growth might be stymied by state government cuts and cap-and-trade legislation, economist Loren Scott told a crowd at the Business Report's Top 100 Luncheon today.
Scott says the Baton Rouge region will grow by 4,000 jobs, or 1.1%, in 2010 and add an additional 5,500 jobs, or 1.5%, in 2011 that will make it the third fastest-growing metro area in the state driven primarily by the construction industry.
However, state cuts due to an almost $1 billion budget shortfall will heavily impact the Capital Region, because they will almost certainly result in job losses in both state government and higher education.
Baton Rouge also has a large petrochemical base that is facing large increases in cost should the American Clean Energy and Security Act, otherwise known as cap-and-trade, pass. Scott says the cost of the current legislation to the ExxonMobil Refinery, a 503,000-barrel unit, would be $1.65 billion per year.
The other metro areas in the state have mixed economic forecasts:
- New Orleans, the largest MSA in the state, will add only 3,000 jobs in 2010 and 2,500 in 2011. While most of the growth will be driven by construction, upcoming layoffs at Lockheed Martin Space Systems and weak tourism numbers will offset many of the construction gains in the region.
- Lake Charles will add 1,000 new jobs in 2010 with 1,700 jobs in 2011. The growth, which will make Lake Charles the second fastest-growing MSA in the state, will be driven by construction on the Sugarcane Bay Casino resort, the Shaw Group’s Global Modular Solutions, which will build nuclear power plant modules, and several other large-scale construction projects.
- Monroe will be the fastest growing MSA in the state with 1,900 new jobs in 2010 and 1,500 in 2011. Investments in the Foster Farms chicken processing plant, the V-Vehicle manufacturing facility, additional employment at Gardner Denver Thomas as well as construction work have significantly brightened the MSA’s outlook.
- Shreveport/Bossier will have split growth, adding 3,000 jobs in 2010 because of expansions at Barksdale Air Force Base, exploration if the Haynesville Shale, an injection of highway funds and construction at the SWEPCO power plant. However, the GM Shreveport plant is set to close by 2012, leaving the MSA to grow by only 1,200 jobs in 2011.
- The Lafayette MSA will have 700 new jobs in 2010 and 1,000 in 2011 -- a much weaker forecast that assumes a proposed federal tax on the oil and gas extraction industry passes.
- That potential tax will also chill employment numbers in the Houma MSA, which is forecast to add 900 new jobs in 2010 and 800 in 2011. The shipbuilding sector and a boost from construction will help offset the impact.
-Alexandria will add 600 new jobs in 2010 and 600 in 2011. There are few sources of new growth in this MSA, although it gets a boost from construction spending at Fort Polk as well as $208.4 million in planned state road projects.
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