1012 Corridor

Parts of the 10/12 corridor continue to grow faster than the nation as a whole, new population estimates from the U.S. Census show.

Numbers released today indicate five parishes – Livingston, Ascension, Lafayette, Tangipahoa and St. Tammany – all had growth that exceeded state and national averages.

On top of that, Livingston and Ascension again made the list of 100 fastest-growing counties in the country, and beat the Southern average.

Estimates indicate both Louisiana and the nation as a whole grew by .9% between July 1, 2007 and July 1, 2008. Growth in the South was slightly better at 1.3%. By comparison, though, Livingston grew by 3.3%; Ascension, 2.7%; Lafayette, 1.1%; Tangipahoa, 1.3%; and St. Tammany, 1%. Although Orleans grew by 8.2% and St. Bernard by 12.8%, much of that is attributed to displaced residents returning home.

Demographer and political analyst Elliott Stonecipher calls the five corridor parishes “relative growth rockets.” “In comparison to anything else in the state except Bossier [up 1.4%],” he says, “it’s relatively ‘smoking.’”

Four other parishes along the corridor continue to grow as well, although not at that rate. St. Martin matched the national growth rate at .9%; Calcasieu, .6%; and Acadia and Jefferson Davis both saw population rise by .4%.

Statistically speaking, however, not all the news was good. Losses in other areas along the corridor indicate the overall pace of growth along the entire stretch may be slowing.

Two of the largest parishes – East Baton Rouge and Jefferson – and three others all lost population, according to the estimates. Jefferson lost 4,158 people, down .9%; East Baton Rouge, 1,554 people, down .4% .

The three river parishes also experienced declines. St. John the Baptist lost an estimated 1.4% of its population; St. Charles and St. James, both less than 1%.

“When the largest parishes of East Baton Rouge and Jefferson are among the losers, that’s not good,” Stonecipher says. “But in these numbers, the Orleans ‘gain’ – along with legitimate growth in EBR white-flight-receiving parishes – more than compensates. Still, there’s no doubt the pace is dropping off.”

Livingston Parish President Mike Grimmer says he’s not surprised the parish has emerged as the real success story, and suspects the growth will continue for the next few years. He says the parish is “seeing a steady flow of flight,” evidenced by school enrollment, traffic and the housing market – particularly a shortage of rental properties.

But he remains frustrated that government continues to ignore growth when it comes to allocating resources. “Two new hospitals and no help from the feds,” he says of Our Lady of the Lake and North Oaks medical centers, both of which are building new facilities in Livingston Parish. “Traffic keeps falling on deaf ears by the feds as well as DOTD. And the so-called stimulus plan forgot the small communities and parishes. They didn’t even look at the fastest growing parishes; they played politics as usual. No priority anywhere on their radar.”

Stonecipher says the real "wild card" is the net effect of the recession. Future estimates - and the 2010 Census - may give some indication of whether former residents are returning to Louisiana from places like Atlanta, Dallas and Houston as the job market worsens.

To see the 2008 population estimates, click here.